Valuation
In FY 2023, FBNH’s Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio dropped to 2.74x from 3.12x in FY 2022, reflecting higher market attraction relative to the previous year. The P/B ratio slightly increased to 0.48x but remained below 1, signifying that the bank is valued below its book value.
Share Price Movement
After downward fluctuations in Q1 2023, FBNH’s share price rebounded in April 2023, rising from N11.00k on April 27, 2023, to N23.55k on December 29, 2023. Analysts attributed the share price rally in July and beyond to the battle for ownership between Oba Otudeko and Femi Otedola. The share price rally persisted in Q1 2024, rising to a resistant price of N43.95k on March 19, 2024. By the beginning of Q2 2024, the share price began to tank, possibly due to investors’ pessimism about banking stocks, considering concerns about bank recapitalisation and falling earnings per share. The Holdco’s share price finally settled at N22.90k on June 11, 2024, leading to a negative year-to-date (YTD) return of -2.76%.
Peer Analysis: Climbing Along a Steep Ladder
Recapitalisation, consolidation and the emergence of new players in the Nigerian banking industry have shuffled the ranking of banks; some were forced behind as technology-driven ones took the spotlight. The oldest Nigerian bank was not exempted from the reshuffle; the bank slipped from the fourth position in asset size in 2019 to the fifth position in 2022 and has remained in the position, outran by UBA.
In terms of profitability, FirstBank climbed from 7th in 2019 to 4th in 2023 and 3rd by Q1 2024. The rapid growth was driven by the group’s strategic plan despite the corporate governance struggle.
FBNH’s consistently low dividend payout (hovering below N1) has kept the dividend yield behind that of other industry players. The group’s dividend yield slumped to the rear end by 2023, with ten (10) banks ahead of the entity, compared to six (6) banks in 2019.
The banking industry saw gross earnings and profitability climb to record highs, benefitting from MPR increases and naira devaluation. Among the tier 1 banks, Access Holding saw the highest gross earnings at N2.59trn, followed by other two banks with gross earnings above N2trn and FBNH and GTCO with earnings below N2trn at N1.59trn and N1.19trn respectively. The positions were slightly different coming to profitability, with Zenith Bank taking the lead at N795.96bn, ahead of UBA (N757.68bn) and Access Holding (N729.00bn), while FBNH had a more modest figure at N350.59bn behind GTCO. Analysts noted that despite GTCO being behind FBNH in gross earnings, GTCO was more profitable.
The banks’ high earnings caused earnings per share for most banks to grow to double digits except for FBNH, which had a single-digit EPS of N8.59k. Zenith Bank had the highest EPS at N21.55k ahead of Access Holding, implying that Access Holding incurred higher operating costs, eating into its profit relative to Zenith Bank. Nevertheless, Access Holding retained its position as having the largest customer deposit at N15.32trn ahead of UBA and Zenith, while GTCO had the lowest tier 1 bank deposit base size at N7.41trn.
GTCO, however, had the highest net interest margin (NIM), return on equity (ROE), and return on assets (ROA). Also, GTCO was the most cost-efficient financial lender, with a cost-to-income ratio (CIR) of 29.10%, while FBNH was the least efficient with a CIR of 49.08%. The fundamental valuation of the banks showed that GTCO had the highest price-to-book value at 0.96x, but FBNH had the highest price-to-earnings at 2.74x, while Access Holding had the least at 0.39x and 1.39x, respectively. This suggests that GTCO’s market value reflects its underlying book value and earnings more than its rivals.
Despite the high-interest rate environment, GTCO had a 1.80% cost of funds, significantly lower than its peers, with Access Holding having the highest at 4.90%. However, Zenith had the highest Cost of risk at 7.30%, while Access Holding had the lowest at 1.00%. GTCO shows better financial health than its rivals based on comparative financial statistics despite having the country’s top six banks’ lowest gross earnings, profit, and asset size.
Closing Thoughts
FBNH’s positive financial numbers would suggest that the internal governance challenges it experienced had a modest impact on its financial performance in FY 2023 and Q1’2024. To make this sustainable, analysts believe that it is important that the group resolves and tightens its governance architecture to prevent spillover effects in investors’ perceptions and consequently market valuation. We however do not believe that this will have a significant impact on its capital raising efforts.
Based on FBNH’s banking license, the group intends to raise an additional N300bn in Tier 1 equity (CET 1) either through a public offer or a private placement. Although the capital raise plan is subject to shareholder approval, market intelligence suggests the group is more than capable of raising these sums from existing shareholders and select entities; and might not therefore proceed with the public offer. This is however subject to the Holdco’s reading of the recapitalization end-game of competitors; the opportunities related to funding size and actions taken around M&A’s (for which preliminary intel suggests the Holdco would not be involved in merger talks or contemplate a license adjustment).
First Bank’s future starts anew after the industry adjudged the successful tenure of the Adesola Adeduntan era. Our analysts anticipate HoldCo’s more hands-on involvement in the bank’s strategic direction in this new dispensation.
Published on Brandfit
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